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北京大学国家发展研究院名誉院长 林毅夫

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编辑|王晓旭

点击进入2024博鳌亚洲论坛|搜狐财经报道专题

3月27日，在博鳌亚洲论坛世界经济展望分论坛上，北京大学国家发展研究院名誉院长林毅夫发表观点。

林毅夫表示，中国已经是中等收入国家，达到了人均GDP13000美元，两三年之内中国一定会变成高收入国家。这种情况下，劳动密集型的产业必然转移到海外工资水平比较低的地方，或者中国中西部，中国中西部接纳能力有限，所以也必然会走向海外。还有跟中国脱钩转移到其他国家的，比如到越南，附加值高的中间产品主要来自中国，这种状况之下，有一部分因为发达国家去风险，把一部分生产转移到其他国家，转移的其实是最终加工阶段，所以从这个角度来看，我觉得中国往海外经营这是发展阶段的必然趋势，地缘政治也加速了一点，但是基本格局是经济力量决定的。